NonZero Newsletter
Robert Wright's Nonzero
Why China Won't Invade Taiwan | NonZero World feat. Dan Grazier
Preview
0:00
-40:19

Why China Won't Invade Taiwan | NonZero World feat. Dan Grazier

Taiwan is MUCH safer than you think

This episode includes an Overtime segment that’s available to paid subscribers. If you’re not a paid subscriber, we of course encourage you to become one. If you are a paid subscriber, you can access the complete conversation either via the audio and video on this post or by setting up the paid-subscriber podcast feed, which includes all exclusive audio content. To set that up, simply grab the RSS feed from this page (by first clicking the “...” icon on the audio player) and paste it into your favorite podcast app.

If you have trouble completing the process, check out this super-simple how-to guide.

0:00 Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is so unlikely
3:36 Taiwan’s terrain: A defender’s dream, an invader’s nightmare
10:30 Why Taipei might be the hardest city in the world to conquer
12:20 Dan: China would need nearly 5 million soldiers to have a chance
13:53 The 2027 invasion theory—and why it doesn’t hold up
16:12 Is China trying to bankrupt the US military?
18:58 A cheaper, smarter way to defend Taiwan
22:17 Submarines: A deterrent with a message
27:22 Comparing a Taiwan invasion to D-Day
31:02 China's long game
35:07 Why a blockade might be worse than an invasion

Recorded July 18, 2025.

https://twitter.com/NonzeroNews
https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

Discussed in Overtime:

The $1 trillion question: Why Washington needs a threat.
How to build a better military.
Dan breaks down a $100 billion boondoggle.

Overtime video:

This post is for paid subscribers