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Robert Wright's Nonzero
Is the AI Takeoff Starting? (Robert Wright & Timothy B. Lee)
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Is the AI Takeoff Starting? (Robert Wright & Timothy B. Lee)

This episode includes an Overtime segment that’s available to paid subscribers. If you’re not a paid subscriber, we of course encourage you to become one. If you are a paid subscriber, you can access the complete conversation either via the audio and video on this post or by setting up the paid-subscriber podcast feed, which includes all exclusive audio content. To set that up, simply grab the RSS feed from this page (by first clicking the “...” icon on the audio player) and paste it into your favorite podcast app.

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0:00 Teaser
1:00 Is AI a normal technology?
6:31 Mythos and the METR curve
16:24 The current state of coding agents
20:41 The total turbulence problem
23:42 Does Mythos favor offense or defense?
29:50 Mythos and hype
32:30 Regulating dangerous AI
38:48 The centralization problem
40:53 Heading to Overtime

Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Timothy B. Lee (Full Stack Economics, Understanding AI, AI Summer). Recorded May 11, 2026.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

Tim’s Understanding AI newsletter on Substack:

Overtime titles:

Tesla vs. Waymo.
Altman on trial.
Elon's new compute empire.
Will humans still have jobs?
The future of status, striving and service work.
Getting sentimental about AIs.
How Tim uses AI.
Tim's pricey robot dog.

Overtime video:

This post is for paid subscribers